Verification of WRF simulated accumulated precipitation

Abstract

Purpose of this study is investigation of Advanced Research Weather Forecasting Model’s (WRF-ARW) skill in Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting for Georgia’s conditions, where orographic features play key role in modeling convectional processes. The Country territory is prone to flash floods and mudflows, Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) and Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) on any leading time are very important for Georgia. We have analyzed several convection parameterization and microphysical schemes combination for different rainy episodes and heavy rainy phenomena. We estimate errors and biases in accumulated 6 h precipitation using different spatial resolution during model performance verification for 12-hour and 24-hour lead time against corresponding rain gouge observations and satellite data. Various statistical parameters have been calculated for the 8-month comparison period and some skills of model simulation have been evaluated.