Evaluation of multi-model hindcasts for land surface air temperature over Georgia

Abstract

Present study evaluates hindcast over the Caucasus Region of the multi-model system, comprising from 4 ERA-Interim-driven regional climate models (RCM) and the high resolution GCM-MRI-AGCM3 of Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). In total, five climate models simulations were assessed against the CRU observational database. Present work focuses on the mean surface air temperature. The study shows the performance of the members of ensembles in representing the basic spatiotemporal patterns of the climate over the territory of Georgia for the period of 1991–2003. Different metrics covering from monthly and seasonal to annual time scales are analyzed over the region of interest: spatial patterns of seasonal mean, annual cycle of temperature, as well monthly mean temperature bias and inter annual variation. The results confirm the distinct capabilities of climate models in capturing the local features of the climatic conditions of the Caucasus Region. This work is in favor to select models with reasonable performance over the study region, based on which a high-resolution bias-adjusted climatic database can be established for future risk assessment and impact studies.