Investigation of simultaneous occurrence probabilities of some dangerous and spontaneous meteorological phenomena for various physical and geographical conditions of Georgia using multiplication and addition theorems of probabilities

Abstract

The occurrence probabilities of some independent dangerous and spontaneous meteorological phenomena complexes for different physical and geographical conditions of Georgia have been estimated using multiplication and addition probability theorems. The complex of precipitation -strong wind events occurs on the Colchis Lowland on average every 20 days in December and January, on the Eastern Georgia plains once per year in May, on the Likhi ridge every 5-7 days during whole year.The occu-rrence of intensive precipitation-strong wind complex is possible in Western Georgia 1 time per decade, in Eastern Georgia - 1 time in 25 years and in the highland zone of the Greater Caucasus approximately 9-10 times in every 25years and on Likhi Ridge once per month. The occurrence of the hail-strong wind complex is possible on average every 50 and 20 years (warm period of year) in the South Georgian Highlands and in Eastern Georgia respectively. The fog-strong wind complex in Greater Caucasus high-mountain zone in May can be realized on average every decade and on the Likhi Ridge every 3-5 days.