Determining the likelihood of emerging illegal dumpsite on the example of Georgia

Abstract

On the example of the Mtskheta-Tianeti highland rural region of Georgia, the probability of illegal landfills is studied using the mathematical equation developed within the research.Statistical and experimental data were collected and processed to calculate the likelihood of illegal landfills as a result of surveys andvisual inspections of municipal services and residents. As a result of airbrushing and visual field work, the results of determining theprobability of illegal landfills in the study area obtained by theoretical calculations were verified.It is established that the theoretically obtained results, which depend on the reliability of the data available in the municipality, are ingood agreement with the real picture. It is also estimated that, on average, the probability of illegal landfills in the study highland ruralareas is 52%. At the same time, the number of illegal landfills in the highland rural areas of five municipalities in the Mtskheta-Mtianetiregion varies from 0.1 to 1.6 units per village.